Vojvodina 1928 0–1 OFK Vrbas: Result & Stats

Vojvodina 1928

FT

0 – 1

OFK Vrbas

4/20/2025

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vojvodina 192833%

×Draw26%

OFK Vrbas41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vojvodina 1928Expected goals in this matchOFK Vrbas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.38

Vojvodina 1928

1.21

OFK Vrbas

1.38

OFK Vrbas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

0.81

creates per match

1.13

1.64

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928

0.81

OFK Vrbas

1.13

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928

1.64

OFK Vrbas

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

OFK Vrbas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

OFK Vrbas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw

59%

Vojvodina 1928 or OFK Vrbas

74%

Draw or OFK Vrbas

67%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+

14%

OFK Vrbas wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals

70%

Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals

34%

Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals

12%

OFK Vrbas 1+ goals

75%

OFK Vrbas 2+ goals

40%

OFK Vrbas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)

45%

OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

OFK Vrbas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

OFK Vrbas attack 1.13 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more

33%

level

26%

OFK Vrbas scores more

41%

OFK Vrbas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "OFK Vrbas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff