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OFK Vrbas vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vrbas
OFK Vrbas
FT
3 – 1
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
10/5/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Stadion Šlaiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OFK Vrbas60%
×Draw22%
Vojvodina 192818%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vrbas
1.84
Vojvodina 1928
0.88

OFK Vrbas creates 109% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 43 away

creates per match

OFK Vrbas
1.50
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

OFK Vrbas
1.03
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

OFK Vrbas+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vrbas ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

OFK Vrbas or draw
82%
OFK Vrbas or Vojvodina 1928
78%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
40%

Winning margin

OFK Vrbas wins by 2+
35%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

OFK Vrbas 1+ goals
84%
OFK Vrbas 2+ goals
55%
OFK Vrbas 3+ goals
28%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
59%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
22%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)
77%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vrbas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vrbas attack 1.50 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.84

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

OFK Vrbas scores more
60%
level
22%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
18%

OFK Vrbas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "OFK Vrbas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: OFK Vrbas 3–1 Vojvodina 1928

OFK Vrbas beat Vojvodina 1928 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Šlaiz in Vrbas.