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Vojvodina 1928 vs Naftagas — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Naftagas
Naftagas
5/31/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192828%
×Draw26%
Naftagas46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.10
Naftagas
1.48

Naftagas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 60 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Naftagas
1.33

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Naftagas
1.40

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Naftagas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Naftagas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
54%
Vojvodina 1928 or Naftagas
74%
Draw or Naftagas
72%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
11%
Naftagas wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
67%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
30%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
10%
Naftagas 1+ goals
77%
Naftagas 2+ goals
43%
Naftagas 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
38%
Naftagas (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Naftagas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Naftagas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Naftagas attack 1.33 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
28%
level
26%
Naftagas scores more
46%

Naftagas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vojvodina 1928 vs Naftagas

Naftagas beat Vojvodina 1928 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.