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Naftagas vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Naftagas
Naftagas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
11/16/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Naftagas67%
×Draw20%
Vojvodina 192813%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftagas
2.05
Vojvodina 1928
0.77

Naftagas creates 166% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 43 away

creates per match

Naftagas
1.92
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

Naftagas
0.83
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw
87%
Naftagas or Vojvodina 1928
80%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
33%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+
42%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals
87%
Naftagas 2+ goals
61%
Naftagas 3+ goals
33%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
54%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
18%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)
84%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.05

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Naftagas scores more
67%
level
20%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
13%

Naftagas at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naftagas vs Vojvodina 1928

Naftagas beat Vojvodina 1928 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Naftagas in Elemir.