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Vojvodina 1928 vs Kozara — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
1 – 0
Kozara
Kozara
5/1/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 32Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vojvodina 192849%
×Draw24%
Kozara27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.66
Kozara
1.17

Vojvodina 1928 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Kozara
0.71

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Kozara
2.50

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Kozara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Kozara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
73%
Vojvodina 1928 or Kozara
76%
Draw or Kozara
51%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
26%
Kozara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
81%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
49%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
23%
Kozara 1+ goals
69%
Kozara 2+ goals
33%
Kozara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
64%
Kozara (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Kozara away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Kozara defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kozara attack 0.71 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
49%
level
24%
Kozara scores more
27%

Vojvodina 1928 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vojvodina 1928 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Vojvodina 1928 1–0 Kozara

Vojvodina 1928 beat Kozara 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.