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Kozara vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kozara
Kozara
FT
0 – 2
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
10/17/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Stadion FK Kozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozara43%
×Draw23%
Vojvodina 192833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara
1.71
Vojvodina 1928
1.47

Kozara creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kozara
1.22
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

Kozara
2.22
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

Kozara+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kozara or draw
67%
Kozara or Vojvodina 1928
77%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
57%

Winning margin

Kozara wins by 2+
23%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kozara 1+ goals
82%
Kozara 2+ goals
51%
Kozara 3+ goals
24%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
77%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
43%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kozara (draw refunded)
57%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara attack 1.22 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Kozara defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kozara scores more
43%
level
23%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
33%

Kozara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kozara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozara vs Vojvodina 1928

Vojvodina 1928 beat Kozara 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kozara in Banatsko Veliko Selo.