Vojvodina 1928 0–0 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Vojvodina 1928

FT

0 – 0

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

4/25/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192836%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vojvodina 1928Expected goals in this matchJedinstvo Stara Pazova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Vojvodina 1928

1.29

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 78 away

0.81

creates per match

1.03

1.64

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928

0.81

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928

1.64

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw

62%

Vojvodina 1928 or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

64%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+

16%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals

72%

Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals

37%

Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals

14%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

74%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

38%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)

49%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more

36%

level

26%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

38%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff