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Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
FT
3 – 0
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
10/7/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova59%
×Draw23%
Vojvodina 192818%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.78
Vojvodina 1928
0.88

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 102% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 43 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.38
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.04
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw
82%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Vojvodina 1928
77%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
41%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
33%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
83%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
53%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
26%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
59%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
22%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
76%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
59%
level
23%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
18%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Vojvodina 1928

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova beat Vojvodina 1928 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Stara Pazova.