Vojvodina 1928 0–1 Borac Sakule: Result & Stats

Vojvodina 1928

FT

0 – 1

Borac Sakule

8/30/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192830%

×Draw25%

Borac Sakule44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vojvodina 1928Expected goals in this matchBorac Sakule

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.52

Vojvodina 1928

1.21

Borac Sakule

1.52

Borac Sakule creates 26% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

0.81

creates per match

1.40

1.64

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928

0.81

Borac Sakule

1.40

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928

1.64

Borac Sakule

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Borac Sakule →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw

56%

Vojvodina 1928 or Borac Sakule

75%

Draw or Borac Sakule

70%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+

13%

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals

70%

Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals

34%

Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals

12%

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

78%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

45%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)

41%

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more

30%

level

25%

Borac Sakule scores more

44%

Borac Sakule at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff