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Borac Sakule vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
2 – 0
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
3/21/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule62%
×Draw21%
Vojvodina 192817%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
2.02
Vojvodina 1928
0.94

Borac Sakule creates 115% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
83%
Borac Sakule or Vojvodina 1928
79%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
38%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
38%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
87%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
60%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
33%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
61%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
24%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
79%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.02

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
62%
level
21%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
17%

Borac Sakule at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Sakule vs Vojvodina 1928

Borac Sakule beat Vojvodina 1928 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.