Vojvodina 1928 2–4 Bačka 1901: Result & Stats

Vojvodina 1928

FT

2 – 4

Bačka 1901

5/29/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 37Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vojvodina 192837%

×Draw25%

Bačka 190138%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vojvodina 1928Expected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.45

Vojvodina 1928

1.41

Bačka 1901

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

0.81

creates per match

1.26

1.64

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928

0.81

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928

1.64

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw

62%

Vojvodina 1928 or Bačka 1901

75%

Draw or Bačka 1901

63%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+

17%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals

76%

Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals

41%

Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals

17%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

77%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

42%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)

49%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more

37%

level

25%

Bačka 1901 scores more

38%

Bačka 1901 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff