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Bačka 1901 vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
FT
2 – 1
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
11/21/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190159%
×Draw22%
Vojvodina 192819%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bačka 1901
1.90
Vojvodina 1928
0.98

Bačka 1901 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Bačka 1901
1.61
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

Bačka 1901
1.25
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw
81%
Bačka 1901 or Vojvodina 1928
78%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
41%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
34%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals
85%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
56%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
29%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
62%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
26%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
75%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more
59%
level
22%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
19%

Bačka 1901 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bačka 1901 2–1 Vojvodina 1928

Bačka 1901 beat Vojvodina 1928 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije in Subotica.