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Vojvodina 1928 vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
0 – 3
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
9/8/2019Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192835%
×Draw26%
1. Maj Ruma39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.27
1. Maj Ruma
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 72 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
61%
Vojvodina 1928 or 1. Maj Ruma
74%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
65%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
15%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
72%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
36%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
14%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
74%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
39%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
47%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
35%
level
26%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
39%

1. Maj Ruma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Vojvodina 1928 0–3 1. Maj Ruma

1. Maj Ruma beat Vojvodina 1928 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.