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1. Maj Ruma vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
1 – 1
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
10/24/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

1. Maj Ruma59%
×Draw24%
Vojvodina 192817%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.72
Vojvodina 1928
0.81

1. Maj Ruma creates 112% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 43 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
83%
1. Maj Ruma or Vojvodina 1928
76%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
41%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
33%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
82%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
51%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
25%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
56%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
19%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
77%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.72

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
59%
level
24%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
17%

1. Maj Ruma at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: 1. Maj Ruma 1–1 Vojvodina 1928

1. Maj Ruma and Vojvodina 1928 drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.