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Vodice vs Uskok Klis — Third NL - Jug 2019

Vodice
Vodice
FT
0 – 1
Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
9/9/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Račice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Vodice51%
×Draw24%
Uskok Klis25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vodice
1.70
Uskok Klis
1.11

Vodice creates 53% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 87 away

creates per match

Vodice
1.83
Uskok Klis
0.89

allows per match

Vodice
1.34
Uskok Klis
1.56

finishing

Vodice+0.00on par
Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vodice ↓

Uskok Klis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vodice or draw
75%
Vodice or Uskok Klis
76%
Draw or Uskok Klis
49%

Winning margin

Vodice wins by 2+
28%
Uskok Klis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vodice 1+ goals
82%
Vodice 2+ goals
51%
Vodice 3+ goals
24%
Uskok Klis 1+ goals
67%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
30%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vodice (draw refunded)
67%
Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vodice at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vodice attack 1.83 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + Vodice defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vodice scores more
51%
level
24%
Uskok Klis scores more
25%

Vodice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vodice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Vodice 0–1 Uskok Klis

Uskok Klis beat Vodice 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Račice in Vodice.