Uskok Klis 2–2 Vodice: Result & Stats

Uskok Klis

FT

2 – 2

Vodice

3/9/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 18Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Uskok Klis65%

×Draw20%

Vodice15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uskok KlisExpected goals in this matchVodice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.93

Uskok Klis

2.15

Vodice

0.93

Uskok Klis creates 131% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 102 away

2.13

creates per match

0.92

0.94

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Uskok Klis

2.13

Vodice

0.92

allows per match

Uskok Klis

0.94

Vodice

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

Vodice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw

85%

Uskok Klis or Vodice

80%

Draw or Vodice

35%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+

41%

Vodice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals

88%

Uskok Klis 2+ goals

63%

Uskok Klis 3+ goals

36%

Vodice 1+ goals

61%

Vodice 2+ goals

24%

Vodice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)

81%

Vodice (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vodice attack 0.92 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Uskok Klis scores more

65%

level

20%

Vodice scores more

15%

Uskok Klis at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff