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Vodice vs Neretva Metković — Third NL - Jug 2019

Vodice
Vodice
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
11/9/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Stadion Račice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Vodice47%
×Draw23%
Neretva Metković30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vodice
1.80
Neretva Metković
1.39

Vodice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Vodice
1.83
Neretva Metković
1.44

allows per match

Vodice
1.34
Neretva Metković
1.77

finishing

Vodice+0.00on par
Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vodice ↓

Neretva Metković →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vodice or draw
70%
Vodice or Neretva Metković
77%
Draw or Neretva Metković
53%

Winning margin

Vodice wins by 2+
26%
Neretva Metković wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vodice 1+ goals
83%
Vodice 2+ goals
54%
Vodice 3+ goals
27%
Neretva Metković 1+ goals
75%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
40%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vodice (draw refunded)
61%
Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vodice at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vodice attack 1.83 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.80

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + Vodice defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vodice scores more
47%
level
23%
Neretva Metković scores more
30%

Vodice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vodice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Vodice 2–3 Neretva Metković

Neretva Metković beat Vodice 3-2 in Third NL - Jug on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Račice in Vodice.