Neretva Metković 2–2 Vodice: Result & Stats

Neretva Metković

FT

2 – 2

Vodice

3/23/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 20Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Neretva Metković60%

×Draw21%

Vodice18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neretva MetkovićExpected goals in this matchVodice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.99

Neretva Metković

1.98

Vodice

0.99

Neretva Metković creates 100% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.80

creates per match

0.92

1.05

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Neretva Metković

1.80

Vodice

0.92

allows per match

Neretva Metković

1.05

Vodice

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

Vodice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw

82%

Neretva Metković or Vodice

79%

Draw or Vodice

40%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+

36%

Vodice wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals

86%

Neretva Metković 2+ goals

59%

Neretva Metković 3+ goals

31%

Vodice 1+ goals

63%

Vodice 2+ goals

26%

Vodice 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)

77%

Vodice (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vodice attack 0.92 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Neretva Metković scores more

60%

level

21%

Vodice scores more

18%

Neretva Metković at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff