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Vodice vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Vodice
Vodice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
4/30/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 25Stadion Račice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Vodice53%
×Draw22%
Hrvatski vitez25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vodice
1.90
Hrvatski vitez
1.23

Vodice creates 54% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 93 away

creates per match

Vodice
1.83
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Vodice
1.34
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Vodice+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vodice ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vodice or draw
75%
Vodice or Hrvatski vitez
78%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
47%

Winning margin

Vodice wins by 2+
30%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vodice 1+ goals
85%
Vodice 2+ goals
56%
Vodice 3+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
71%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
35%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vodice (draw refunded)
68%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vodice at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vodice attack 1.83 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Vodice defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vodice scores more
53%
level
22%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
25%

Vodice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vodice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vodice vs Hrvatski vitez

Vodice beat Hrvatski vitez 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Račice in Vodice.