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Hrvatski vitez vs Vodice — Third NL - Jug 2019

Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vodice
Vodice
10/26/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 10Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Hrvatski vitez63%
×Draw20%
Vodice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski vitez
2.08
Vodice
0.94

Hrvatski vitez creates 121% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez
1.99
Vodice
0.92

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez
0.95
Vodice
2.17

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par
Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Vodice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw
84%
Hrvatski vitez or Vodice
80%
Draw or Vodice
37%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
39%
Vodice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
87%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
61%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
34%
Vodice 1+ goals
61%
Vodice 2+ goals
24%
Vodice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
80%
Vodice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Vodice attack 0.92 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more
63%
level
20%
Vodice scores more
16%

Hrvatski vitez at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski vitez vs Vodice

Hrvatski vitez and Vodice drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Gordan Demo in Posedarje.