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Vocem vs Nacional SP — League #1062 2026

Vocem
Vocem
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nacional SP
Nacional SP
Unknown 90+6', 90+5', 90+1', 15'
Unknown 86', 74', 42'
2/11/2024League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vocem49%
×Draw24%
Nacional SP26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vocem
1.66
Nacional SP
1.14

Vocem creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vocem
1.67
Nacional SP
0.94

allows per match

Vocem
1.33
Nacional SP
1.65

finishing

Vocem+0.00on par
Nacional SP+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vocem ↓

Nacional SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vocem or draw
74%
Vocem or Nacional SP
76%
Draw or Nacional SP
51%

Winning margin

Vocem wins by 2+
26%
Nacional SP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vocem 1+ goals
81%
Vocem 2+ goals
49%
Vocem 3+ goals
23%
Nacional SP 1+ goals
68%
Nacional SP 2+ goals
32%
Nacional SP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vocem (draw refunded)
65%
Nacional SP (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vocem at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Nacional SP away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vocem attack 1.67 + Nacional SP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nacional SP attack 0.94 + Vocem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vocem scores more
49%
level
24%
Nacional SP scores more
26%

Vocem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vocem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
42'
74'
86'
90+1'
90+5'
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1062: Vocem 4–3 Nacional SP

Vocem beat Nacional SP 4-3 in League #1062 on February 11, 2024.

Goals: ? (15', 42', 74', 86', 90+1', 90+5', 90+6').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva in Assis, São Paulo.