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Nacional SP vs Vocem — League #1062 2026

Nacional SP
Nacional SP
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vocem
Vocem
N. Ferreira Castro 49'
Gustavo 45+2'
Da Ora 24'
3/15/2025League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Nicolau Alayon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nacional SP26%
×Draw28%
Vocem46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional SP
0.92
Vocem
1.33

Vocem creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nacional SP
0.83
Vocem
1.67

allows per match

Nacional SP
1.00
Vocem
1.00

finishing

Nacional SP+0.00on par
Vocem+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional SP ↓

Vocem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nacional SP or draw
54%
Nacional SP or Vocem
72%
Draw or Vocem
74%

Winning margin

Nacional SP wins by 2+
9%
Vocem wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nacional SP 1+ goals
60%
Nacional SP 2+ goals
23%
Nacional SP 3+ goals
7%
Vocem 1+ goals
74%
Vocem 2+ goals
38%
Vocem 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nacional SP (draw refunded)
36%
Vocem (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional SP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Vocem away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional SP attack 0.83 + Vocem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Vocem attack 1.67 + Nacional SP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nacional SP scores more
26%
level
28%
Vocem scores more
46%

Vocem at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vocem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Da Ora
45+2'
Gustavo
49'
N. Ferreira Castro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1062: Nacional SP 0–3 Vocem

Vocem beat Nacional SP 3-0 in League #1062 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: Da Ora (24'), Gustavo (45+2'), N. Ferreira Castro (49').

The match was played at Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo, São Paulo.