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VOCEM U20 vs Marília U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

VOCEM U20
VOCEM U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Marília U20
Marília U20
Unknown 57', 31'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

VOCEM U2026%
×Draw22%
Marília U2051%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VOCEM U20
1.32
Marília U20
1.92

Marília U20 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

VOCEM U20
1.40
Marília U20
1.63

allows per match

VOCEM U20
2.20
Marília U20
1.25

finishing

VOCEM U20+0.00on par
Marília U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VOCEM U20 ↓

Marília U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

VOCEM U20 or draw
49%
VOCEM U20 or Marília U20
78%
Draw or Marília U20
74%

Winning margin

VOCEM U20 wins by 2+
11%
Marília U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

VOCEM U20 1+ goals
73%
VOCEM U20 2+ goals
38%
VOCEM U20 3+ goals
15%
Marília U20 1+ goals
85%
Marília U20 2+ goals
57%
Marília U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

VOCEM U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Marília U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VOCEM U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Marília U20 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VOCEM U20 attack 1.40 + Marília U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + VOCEM U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VOCEM U20 scores more
26%
level
22%
Marília U20 scores more
51%

Marília U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
57'
81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VOCEM U20 0 – 2 Marília U20

Marília U20 beat VOCEM U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: ? (31', 57').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva in Assis, São Paulo.