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Marília U20 vs VOCEM U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Marília U20
Marília U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VOCEM U20
VOCEM U20
Unknown 66'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Marília U2056%
×Draw22%
VOCEM U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marília U20
2.01
VOCEM U20
1.18

Marília U20 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Marília U20
1.63
VOCEM U20
0.60

allows per match

Marília U20
1.75
VOCEM U20
2.40

finishing

Marília U20+0.00on par
VOCEM U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marília U20 ↓

VOCEM U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marília U20 or draw
78%
Marília U20 or VOCEM U20
78%
Draw or VOCEM U20
44%

Winning margin

Marília U20 wins by 2+
33%
VOCEM U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marília U20 1+ goals
87%
Marília U20 2+ goals
59%
Marília U20 3+ goals
32%
VOCEM U20 1+ goals
69%
VOCEM U20 2+ goals
33%
VOCEM U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Marília U20 (draw refunded)
72%
VOCEM U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marília U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

VOCEM U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + VOCEM U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

VOCEM U20 attack 0.60 + Marília U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Marília U20 scores more
56%
level
22%
VOCEM U20 scores more
22%

Marília U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Marília U20 1–0 VOCEM U20

Marília U20 beat VOCEM U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (66').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal in Marília, São Paulo.