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VMA vs Räppe — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

VMA
VMA
FT
2 – 5
Räppe
Räppe
Unknown 6'
Unknown 40', 36', 27', 22', 9'
4/7/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 2Ädlavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA21%
×Draw19%
Räppe60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VMA
1.31
Räppe
2.33

Räppe creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 92 away

creates per match

VMA
1.08
Räppe
1.58

allows per match

VMA
3.08
Räppe
1.53

finishing

VMA+0.00on par
Räppe+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Räppe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

VMA or draw
40%
VMA or Räppe
81%
Draw or Räppe
79%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+
8%
Räppe wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals
73%
VMA 2+ goals
38%
VMA 3+ goals
14%
Räppe 1+ goals
90%
Räppe 2+ goals
67%
Räppe 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)
26%
Räppe (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Räppe away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Räppe defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Räppe attack 1.58 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

VMA scores more
21%
level
19%
Räppe scores more
60%

Räppe at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Räppe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
9'
22'
27'
36'
40'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VMA vs Räppe

Räppe beat VMA 5-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on April 7, 2023.

Goals: ? (6', 9', 22', 27', 36', 40').

The match was played at Ädlavallen in Villands Vånga.