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Räppe vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Räppe
Räppe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VMA
VMA
6/13/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 14Räppevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Räppe65%
×Draw19%
VMA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Räppe
2.38
VMA
1.12

Räppe creates 112% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 13 away

creates per match

Räppe
1.67
VMA
0.92

allows per match

Räppe
1.32
VMA
3.08

finishing

Räppe+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Räppe ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Räppe or draw
83%
Räppe or VMA
81%
Draw or VMA
35%

Winning margin

Räppe wins by 2+
43%
VMA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Räppe 1+ goals
91%
Räppe 2+ goals
68%
Räppe 3+ goals
42%
VMA 1+ goals
67%
VMA 2+ goals
31%
VMA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Räppe (draw refunded)
80%
VMA (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Räppe at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.32 · 95 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Räppe attack 1.67 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

VMA attack 0.92 + Räppe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Räppe scores more
65%
level
19%
VMA scores more
17%

Räppe at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Räppe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Räppe 3 – 0 VMA

Räppe beat VMA 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on June 13, 2023.

The match was played at Räppevallen in Växjö.