Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VMA vs Österlen — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

VMA
VMA
FT
3 – 3
Österlen
Österlen
5/13/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 7Ädlavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA23%
×Draw20%
Österlen57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VMA
1.39
Österlen
2.29

Österlen creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

VMA
1.08
Österlen
1.51

allows per match

VMA
3.08
Österlen
1.69

finishing

VMA+0.00on par
Österlen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Österlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

VMA or draw
43%
VMA or Österlen
80%
Draw or Österlen
77%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+
10%
Österlen wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals
75%
VMA 2+ goals
40%
VMA 3+ goals
16%
Österlen 1+ goals
90%
Österlen 2+ goals
66%
Österlen 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)
28%
Österlen (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Österlen away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.69 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Österlen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Österlen attack 1.51 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

VMA scores more
23%
level
20%
Österlen scores more
57%

Österlen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: VMA 3–3 Österlen

VMA and Österlen drew 3-3 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Ädlavallen in Villands Vånga.