Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Österlen vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Österlen
Österlen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
VMA
VMA
9/9/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 20Skillinge Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Österlen64%
×Draw18%
VMA18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Österlen
2.43
VMA
1.20

Österlen creates 103% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

creates per match

Österlen
1.78
VMA
0.92

allows per match

Österlen
1.48
VMA
3.08

finishing

Österlen+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Österlen ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Österlen or draw
82%
Österlen or VMA
82%
Draw or VMA
36%

Winning margin

Österlen wins by 2+
42%
VMA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Österlen 1+ goals
91%
Österlen 2+ goals
69%
Österlen 3+ goals
43%
VMA 1+ goals
70%
VMA 2+ goals
34%
VMA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Österlen (draw refunded)
79%
VMA (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Österlen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Österlen attack 1.78 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.43

VMA attack 0.92 + Österlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Österlen scores more
64%
level
18%
VMA scores more
18%

Österlen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Österlen 4 – 0 VMA

Österlen beat VMA 4-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Skillinge Idrottsplats in Simrishamn.