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VMA vs Nosaby — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

VMA
VMA
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Nosaby
Nosaby
9/2/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 19Arkelstorps IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA24%
×Draw20%
Nosaby56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VMA
1.44
Nosaby
2.25

Nosaby creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 92 away

creates per match

VMA
1.08
Nosaby
1.42

allows per match

VMA
3.08
Nosaby
1.80

finishing

VMA+0.00on par
Nosaby+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Nosaby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

VMA or draw
44%
VMA or Nosaby
80%
Draw or Nosaby
76%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+
11%
Nosaby wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals
76%
VMA 2+ goals
42%
VMA 3+ goals
18%
Nosaby 1+ goals
89%
Nosaby 2+ goals
65%
Nosaby 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)
30%
Nosaby (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Nosaby away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.80 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Nosaby defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nosaby attack 1.42 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VMA scores more
24%
level
20%
Nosaby scores more
56%

Nosaby at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nosaby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: VMA 1–5 Nosaby

Nosaby beat VMA 5-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Arkelstorps IP in Arkelstorp.