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Nosaby vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Nosaby
Nosaby
FT
0 – 2
VMA
VMA
5/5/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 6Nya Vallbjörka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nosaby61%
×Draw19%
VMA20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nosaby
2.31
VMA
1.24

Nosaby creates 86% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nosaby
1.54
VMA
0.92

allows per match

Nosaby
1.55
VMA
3.08

finishing

Nosaby+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nosaby ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Nosaby or draw
80%
Nosaby or VMA
81%
Draw or VMA
39%

Winning margin

Nosaby wins by 2+
39%
VMA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nosaby 1+ goals
90%
Nosaby 2+ goals
67%
Nosaby 3+ goals
40%
VMA 1+ goals
71%
VMA 2+ goals
35%
VMA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nosaby (draw refunded)
76%
VMA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nosaby at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.55 · 92 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nosaby attack 1.54 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.31

VMA attack 0.92 + Nosaby defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nosaby scores more
61%
level
19%
VMA scores more
20%

Nosaby at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nosaby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Nosaby 0–2 VMA

VMA beat Nosaby 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Nya Vallbjörka in Kristianstad.