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VMA vs Kristianstad — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

VMA
VMA
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Kristianstad
Kristianstad
10/15/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 25Arkelstorps IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA20%
×Draw19%
Kristianstad61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VMA
1.25
Kristianstad
2.33

Kristianstad creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 73 away

creates per match

VMA
1.08
Kristianstad
1.58

allows per match

VMA
3.08
Kristianstad
1.41

finishing

VMA+0.00on par
Kristianstad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Kristianstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

VMA or draw
39%
VMA or Kristianstad
81%
Draw or Kristianstad
80%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+
8%
Kristianstad wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals
71%
VMA 2+ goals
36%
VMA 3+ goals
13%
Kristianstad 1+ goals
90%
Kristianstad 2+ goals
67%
Kristianstad 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)
24%
Kristianstad (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Kristianstad away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Kristianstad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kristianstad attack 1.58 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

VMA scores more
20%
level
19%
Kristianstad scores more
61%

Kristianstad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kristianstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: VMA 0–4 Kristianstad

Kristianstad beat VMA 4-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Arkelstorps IP in Arkelstorp.