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Kristianstad vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Kristianstad
Kristianstad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
VMA
VMA
6/17/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 12Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kristianstad67%
×Draw18%
VMA15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristianstad
2.40
VMA
1.05

Kristianstad creates 129% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kristianstad
1.71
VMA
0.92

allows per match

Kristianstad
1.18
VMA
3.08

finishing

Kristianstad+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kristianstad or draw
85%
Kristianstad or VMA
82%
Draw or VMA
33%

Winning margin

Kristianstad wins by 2+
44%
VMA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kristianstad 1+ goals
91%
Kristianstad 2+ goals
69%
Kristianstad 3+ goals
42%
VMA 1+ goals
65%
VMA 2+ goals
28%
VMA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad (draw refunded)
82%
VMA (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 72 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad attack 1.71 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.40

VMA attack 0.92 + Kristianstad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kristianstad scores more
67%
level
18%
VMA scores more
15%

Kristianstad at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kristianstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Kristianstad 2–0 VMA

Kristianstad beat VMA 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Kristianstads Fotbollsarena in Kristianstad.