VMA 2–7 IFK Trelleborg: Result & Stats

VMA

FT

2 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

IFK Trelleborg

5/27/2023

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 9Ädlavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA22%

×Draw19%

IFK Trelleborg58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VMAExpected goals in this matchIFK Trelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.36

VMA

1.40

IFK Trelleborg

2.36

IFK Trelleborg creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

1.08

creates per match

1.64

3.08

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

VMA

1.08

IFK Trelleborg

1.64

allows per match

VMA

3.08

IFK Trelleborg

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VMA+0.00on par

IFK Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

IFK Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

VMA or draw

42%

VMA or IFK Trelleborg

81%

Draw or IFK Trelleborg

78%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+

9%

IFK Trelleborg wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals

75%

VMA 2+ goals

41%

VMA 3+ goals

17%

IFK Trelleborg 1+ goals

90%

IFK Trelleborg 2+ goals

68%

IFK Trelleborg 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)

27%

IFK Trelleborg (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

IFK Trelleborg away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + IFK Trelleborg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

IFK Trelleborg attack 1.64 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

VMA scores more

22%

level

19%

IFK Trelleborg scores more

58%

IFK Trelleborg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "IFK Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff