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IFK Trelleborg vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

IFK Trelleborg
IFK Trelleborg
FT
0 – 1
VMA
VMA
10/1/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 23Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Trelleborg68%
×Draw17%
VMA15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Trelleborg
2.65
VMA
1.17

IFK Trelleborg creates 126% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Trelleborg
2.22
VMA
0.92

allows per match

IFK Trelleborg
1.41
VMA
3.08

finishing

IFK Trelleborg+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Trelleborg ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

IFK Trelleborg or draw
85%
IFK Trelleborg or VMA
83%
Draw or VMA
32%

Winning margin

IFK Trelleborg wins by 2+
47%
VMA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

IFK Trelleborg 1+ goals
93%
IFK Trelleborg 2+ goals
74%
IFK Trelleborg 3+ goals
48%
VMA 1+ goals
69%
VMA 2+ goals
33%
VMA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IFK Trelleborg (draw refunded)
82%
VMA (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Trelleborg at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Trelleborg attack 2.22 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.65

VMA attack 0.92 + IFK Trelleborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

IFK Trelleborg scores more
68%
level
17%
VMA scores more
15%

IFK Trelleborg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "IFK Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Trelleborg vs VMA

VMA beat IFK Trelleborg 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.