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VMA vs IFK Malmö — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

VMA
VMA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Malmö
IFK Malmö
9/17/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 21Arkelstorps IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA28%
×Draw21%
IFK Malmö52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VMA
1.54
IFK Malmö
2.16

IFK Malmö creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

VMA
1.08
IFK Malmö
1.23

allows per match

VMA
3.08
IFK Malmö
2.00

finishing

VMA+0.00on par
IFK Malmö+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

IFK Malmö →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

VMA or draw
48%
VMA or IFK Malmö
79%
Draw or IFK Malmö
72%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+
13%
IFK Malmö wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals
79%
VMA 2+ goals
45%
VMA 3+ goals
20%
IFK Malmö 1+ goals
88%
IFK Malmö 2+ goals
63%
IFK Malmö 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)
35%
IFK Malmö (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

IFK Malmö away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + IFK Malmö defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

IFK Malmö attack 1.23 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

VMA scores more
28%
level
21%
IFK Malmö scores more
52%

IFK Malmö at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "IFK Malmö will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VMA vs IFK Malmö

VMA beat IFK Malmö 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Arkelstorps IP in Arkelstorp.