Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IFK Malmö vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

IFK Malmö
IFK Malmö
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 0
VMA
VMA
5/20/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 8Heleneholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Malmö48%
×Draw20%
VMA32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Malmö
2.35
VMA
1.92

IFK Malmö creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Malmö
1.62
VMA
0.92

allows per match

IFK Malmö
2.92
VMA
3.08

finishing

IFK Malmö+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Malmö ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

IFK Malmö or draw
68%
IFK Malmö or VMA
80%
Draw or VMA
52%

Winning margin

IFK Malmö wins by 2+
29%
VMA wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IFK Malmö 1+ goals
90%
IFK Malmö 2+ goals
68%
IFK Malmö 3+ goals
41%
VMA 1+ goals
85%
VMA 2+ goals
57%
VMA 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

IFK Malmö (draw refunded)
60%
VMA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Malmö at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Malmö attack 1.62 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.35

VMA attack 0.92 + IFK Malmö defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IFK Malmö scores more
48%
level
20%
VMA scores more
32%

IFK Malmö at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "IFK Malmö will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IFK Malmö 3 – 4 VMA

VMA beat IFK Malmö 4-3 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Heleneholms IP in Malmö.