VMA 1–3 IFK Hässleholm: Result & Stats

VMA

FT

1 – 3

IFK Hässleholm

Hall 28'

Unknown 38'

4/28/2023

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 5Ädlavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA24%

×Draw20%

IFK Hässleholm56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VMAExpected goals in this matchIFK Hässleholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.29

VMA

1.43

IFK Hässleholm

2.29

IFK Hässleholm creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

1.08

creates per match

1.50

3.08

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

VMA

1.08

IFK Hässleholm

1.50

allows per match

VMA

3.08

IFK Hässleholm

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VMA+0.00on par

IFK Hässleholm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

IFK Hässleholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

VMA or draw

44%

VMA or IFK Hässleholm

80%

Draw or IFK Hässleholm

76%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+

10%

IFK Hässleholm wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals

76%

VMA 2+ goals

42%

VMA 3+ goals

17%

IFK Hässleholm 1+ goals

90%

IFK Hässleholm 2+ goals

66%

IFK Hässleholm 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)

29%

IFK Hässleholm (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

IFK Hässleholm away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + IFK Hässleholm defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

IFK Hässleholm attack 1.50 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VMA scores more

24%

level

20%

IFK Hässleholm scores more

56%

IFK Hässleholm at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "IFK Hässleholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Hall

38'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff