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IFK Hässleholm vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

IFK Hässleholm
IFK Hässleholm
FT
4 – 1
VMA
VMA
8/29/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 18Österås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Hässleholm63%
×Draw19%
VMA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Hässleholm
2.43
VMA
1.26

IFK Hässleholm creates 93% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Hässleholm
1.78
VMA
0.92

allows per match

IFK Hässleholm
1.59
VMA
3.08

finishing

IFK Hässleholm+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Hässleholm ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

IFK Hässleholm or draw
81%
IFK Hässleholm or VMA
81%
Draw or VMA
37%

Winning margin

IFK Hässleholm wins by 2+
41%
VMA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

IFK Hässleholm 1+ goals
91%
IFK Hässleholm 2+ goals
69%
IFK Hässleholm 3+ goals
43%
VMA 1+ goals
72%
VMA 2+ goals
36%
VMA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

IFK Hässleholm (draw refunded)
77%
VMA (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Hässleholm at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.59 · 85 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Hässleholm attack 1.78 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.43

VMA attack 0.92 + IFK Hässleholm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

IFK Hässleholm scores more
63%
level
19%
VMA scores more
19%

IFK Hässleholm at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "IFK Hässleholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Hässleholm vs VMA

IFK Hässleholm beat VMA 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Österås IP in Hässleholm.