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Vllaznia Shkodër vs Luftetari Gjirokaster — Superliga 2018

Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luftetari Gjirokaster
Luftetari Gjirokaster
9/22/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 5Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër59%
×Draw23%
Luftetari Gjirokaster18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.74
Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.83

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 110% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.42
Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.75

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
0.92
Luftetari Gjirokaster
2.06

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par
Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Luftetari Gjirokaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw
82%
Vllaznia Shkodër or Luftetari Gjirokaster
77%
Draw or Luftetari Gjirokaster
41%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
33%
Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
82%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
52%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
25%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals
56%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals
20%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
77%
Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.42 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.74

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.75 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
59%
level
23%
Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more
18%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Vllaznia Shkodër 0–0 Luftetari Gjirokaster

Vllaznia Shkodër and Luftetari Gjirokaster drew 0-0 in Superliga on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in Shkodër.