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Luftetari Gjirokaster vs Vllaznia Shkodër — Superliga 2018

Luftetari Gjirokaster
Luftetari Gjirokaster
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
7/5/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 32Stadiumi Gjirokastra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster28%
×Draw30%
Vllaznia Shkodër42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.92
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.19

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 29% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 128 away

creates per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.81
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

allows per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster
1.42
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

finishing

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par
Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luftetari Gjirokaster ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Luftetari Gjirokaster or draw
58%
Luftetari Gjirokaster or Vllaznia Shkodër
70%
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
72%

Winning margin

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+
10%
Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals
60%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals
23%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals
7%
Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
70%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
33%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)
40%
Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luftetari Gjirokaster at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.81 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more
28%
level
30%
Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
42%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Luftetari Gjirokaster 0–1 Vllaznia Shkodër

Vllaznia Shkodër beat Luftetari Gjirokaster 1-0 in Superliga on July 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Gjirokastra in Gjirokastër.