Vlasina 1–0 Timočanin: Result & Stats

Vlasina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Timočanin

3/19/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Vlasina55%

×Draw24%

Timočanin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VlasinaExpected goals in this matchTimočanin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.99

Vlasina

1.74

Timočanin

0.99

Vlasina creates 76% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 73 away

1.81

creates per match

1.05

0.94

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Vlasina

1.81

Timočanin

1.05

allows per match

Vlasina

0.94

Timočanin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par

Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Timočanin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw

79%

Vlasina or Timočanin

76%

Draw or Timočanin

45%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+

30%

Timočanin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals

82%

Vlasina 2+ goals

52%

Vlasina 3+ goals

25%

Timočanin 1+ goals

63%

Timočanin 2+ goals

26%

Timočanin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)

72%

Timočanin (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vlasina scores more

55%

level

24%

Timočanin scores more

21%

Vlasina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff