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Timočanin vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timočanin
Timočanin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vlasina
Vlasina
10/8/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Timočanin54%
×Draw21%
Vlasina24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timočanin
2.04
Vlasina
1.30

Timočanin creates 57% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 101 away

creates per match

Timočanin
2.37
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Timočanin
1.20
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw
76%
Timočanin or Vlasina
79%
Draw or Vlasina
46%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+
32%
Vlasina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals
87%
Timočanin 2+ goals
60%
Timočanin 3+ goals
33%
Vlasina 1+ goals
73%
Vlasina 2+ goals
37%
Vlasina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)
69%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.04

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Timočanin scores more
54%
level
21%
Vlasina scores more
24%

Timočanin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timočanin vs Vlasina

Timočanin beat Vlasina 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Knjaževac.