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Vlasina vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
7 – 1
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
3/7/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vlasina79%
×Draw13%
Moravac Mrštane8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
3.00
Moravac Mrštane
0.86

Vlasina creates 249% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 28 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
92%
Vlasina or Moravac Mrštane
87%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
21%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
60%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
95%
Vlasina 2+ goals
79%
Vlasina 3+ goals
56%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
58%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
21%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
91%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.00

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Vlasina scores more
79%
level
13%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
8%

Vlasina at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Vlasina 7–1 Moravac Mrštane

Vlasina beat Moravac Mrštane 7-1 in Srpska Liga - East on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.