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Moravac Mrštane vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
0 – 1
Vlasina
Vlasina
8/15/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 1SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane24%
×Draw20%
Vlasina56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
1.46
Vlasina
2.31

Vlasina creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 101 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
44%
Moravac Mrštane or Vlasina
80%
Draw or Vlasina
76%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
10%
Vlasina wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
77%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
43%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
18%
Vlasina 1+ goals
90%
Vlasina 2+ goals
67%
Vlasina 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
30%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
24%
level
20%
Vlasina scores more
56%

Vlasina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moravac Mrštane vs Vlasina

Vlasina beat Moravac Mrštane 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.