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Vlasina vs Mladost Medoševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
3 – 0
Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
10/4/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 10Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vlasina61%
×Draw21%
Mladost Medoševac19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
2.09
Mladost Medoševac
1.07

Vlasina creates 95% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
Mladost Medoševac
1.21

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
Mladost Medoševac
2.37

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Mladost Medoševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
81%
Vlasina or Mladost Medoševac
79%
Draw or Mladost Medoševac
39%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
37%
Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
88%
Vlasina 2+ goals
62%
Vlasina 3+ goals
34%
Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
76%
Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Mladost Medoševac away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Mladost Medoševac defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.09

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.21 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vlasina scores more
61%
level
21%
Mladost Medoševac scores more
19%

Vlasina at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Vlasina 3–0 Mladost Medoševac

Vlasina beat Mladost Medoševac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.