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Mladost Medoševac vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
1 – 3
Vlasina
Vlasina
4/18/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 29Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac44%
×Draw25%
Vlasina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
1.52
Vlasina
1.25

Mladost Medoševac creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
69%
Mladost Medoševac or Vlasina
75%
Draw or Vlasina
56%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
22%
Vlasina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
78%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
45%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
20%
Vlasina 1+ goals
71%
Vlasina 2+ goals
36%
Vlasina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
58%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
44%
level
25%
Vlasina scores more
31%

Mladost Medoševac at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Mladost Medoševac 1–3 Vlasina

Vlasina beat Mladost Medoševac 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.