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Vlasina vs Meševo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
2 – 1
Meševo
Meševo
4/10/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 21Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vlasina57%
×Draw23%
Meševo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
1.81
Meševo
0.99

Vlasina creates 83% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
Meševo
1.04

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
Meševo
1.82

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Meševo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
80%
Vlasina or Meševo
77%
Draw or Meševo
43%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
32%
Meševo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
84%
Vlasina 2+ goals
54%
Vlasina 3+ goals
27%
Meševo 1+ goals
63%
Meševo 2+ goals
26%
Meševo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
73%
Meševo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Meševo attack 1.04 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vlasina scores more
57%
level
23%
Meševo scores more
20%

Vlasina at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Vlasina 2–1 Meševo

Vlasina beat Meševo 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.