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Meševo vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Meševo
Meševo
FT
0 – 1
Vlasina
Vlasina
10/22/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo52%
×Draw23%
Vlasina26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meševo
1.86
Vlasina
1.25

Meševo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 101 away

creates per match

Meševo
2.00
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Meševo
1.11
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Meševo or draw
74%
Meševo or Vlasina
77%
Draw or Vlasina
48%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+
29%
Vlasina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals
84%
Meševo 2+ goals
55%
Meševo 3+ goals
28%
Vlasina 1+ goals
71%
Vlasina 2+ goals
36%
Vlasina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)
67%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.86

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Meševo scores more
52%
level
23%
Vlasina scores more
26%

Meševo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Meševo 0–1 Vlasina

Vlasina beat Meševo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Meševo Doljane in Meševo.