Vlasina 0–0 Jedinstvo Kruševac: Result & Stats

Vlasina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jedinstvo Kruševac

8/11/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vlasina50%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo Kruševac24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VlasinaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Kruševac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.95

Vlasina

1.50

Jedinstvo Kruševac

0.95

Vlasina creates 58% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

0.96

0.94

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Vlasina

1.81

Jedinstvo Kruševac

0.96

allows per match

Vlasina

0.94

Jedinstvo Kruševac

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw

76%

Vlasina or Jedinstvo Kruševac

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac

50%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+

25%

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals

78%

Vlasina 2+ goals

44%

Vlasina 3+ goals

19%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals

61%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals

25%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)

68%

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vlasina scores more

50%

level

26%

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more

24%

Vlasina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff