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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vlasina
Vlasina
3/8/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 16Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac51%
×Draw23%
Vlasina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.88
Vlasina
1.31

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 44% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 101 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
73%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or Vlasina
77%
Draw or Vlasina
49%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
28%
Vlasina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
85%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
56%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
29%
Vlasina 1+ goals
73%
Vlasina 2+ goals
38%
Vlasina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
65%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
51%
level
23%
Vlasina scores more
27%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Vlasina

Jedinstvo Kruševac beat Vlasina 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.